Wednesday, October 15, 2008

It's Over! It Begins!

Well the federal election has ended with somewhat predictable results, a Conservative minority government will remain in power in Ottawa. There were some notable results in individual ridings. The Conservatives cleaned up in BC, the NDP won seats in Quebec and Alberta (!), the Bloc Qubecois is not dead, the Green Party is still not a real party (perhaps they should be dubbed the Pinocchio party) and the Liberals are looking weaker and weaker.

Of course, Stephane Dion will take the heat in the coming days, and well he should accept a lot of responsibility. Yet, I can't help but think that while there were evidently things he might have done differently, the Liberals really have bigger problems right now. They are not only reduced in seats, but it appears from here that they are, at best, the third best Canadian political party at doing the work of getting MPs elected. They obviously trail the Conservatives and (for all the doom and gloom) they are not as good as the Bloc (yes, I get that they have immense structural advantages by not running a national campaign). It's not clear at this point that they are really all that much better than the NDP.

Anyway, barring something truly strange the Liberals have this to look forward to in the next year. Good luck with all of that.

Here's my take; if Stephane Dion is, in fact, truly a leader - I don't meant of the Liberals, although that too, but of people - he will immediately convene some sort of committee or advisory group of smart people (both inside and outside the party) to figure out what's wrong and how to fix it. This is the third election in a row in which they have lost seats and votes. This is much bigger than M. Dion, or even Mr. Martin or M. Chretien. Until the Liberals do this, until they stop thinking of themselves as being at the centre of Canadian political life, they should expect many more nights like last night.